The Australian dollar continues to break down against the US dollar, and now we are breaking through the last vestiges of support. He acknowledged last week that they are not under pressure to make a deal with China. Christopher Lewis Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex for several years. I digested it with every bit of my blood. As is customary, positioning warrants a quick mention, if only for record keeping.
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That could present a favorable selling opportunity for a move back to key support at 1. Alternatively, a daily close above descending channel resistance near 1. This back and forth price action has plagued the risk-sensitive pair for the majority of I mentioned what appeared to be a falling wedge on August 23rd.
Not long after that post, buyers closed the pair well above resistance. It seems the On the other end, buyers continue to come to the rescue as soon as prices dip near former wedge resistance. We saw it happen on August 31st and again on Friday.
There is also a trend line support that extends from the year to date low that appears to have come into play just before the weekend. Note how the pair caught a bid from this level on Friday. So take any break of the trend line below with a grain of salt. In fact, take extra care when pursuing any breakout here.
The pair remains incredibly indecisive and difficult to interpret when compared to some of the other more favorable currency pairs. I discussed it last Sunday and again on Tuesday. So far, the pair is holding above former channel resistance which should now serve as support. That level comes in near 1. The best course of action, in my opinion, is to stay patient. As long as the USDCAD trades above former channel resistance new support , the potential for further gains seems likely.
Key resistance comes in at 1. However, sellers decided to change things up on Friday, closing the pair nearly 60 pips below the key support level. See the chart below. It would also expose the 0. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Contact and follow James on Twitter: Fundamental Forecast for GBP: We recently turned positive on Sterling and our view has been hardened this week, helped by a more conciliatory tone surrounding Brexit negotiations and a decent technical bounce back from a mid-week dip in the British Pound.
Talks remain ongoing and will continue to provide wire services with a raft of headlines, so the usual Brexit-disclaimer remains in place. The UK data and events calendar are busy next week with a slew of heavyweight data prints before the latest release from the Bank of England on Thursday. While UK interest rates are fully expected to remain unchanged for months to come, accompanying text from the MPC may provide some further economic clarity.
The data releases in the first half-of-the-week remain as important as ever and will need to be closely monitored. The comprehensive DailyFX Economic Calendar for the week ahead provides traders with updated data and forecasts across all major currencies.
Trading plans are imperative for creating consistent results'. Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides — Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons — while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide. To contact Nick, email him at nicholas. Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Non-Farm Payrolls NFP report sparks a bullish reaction in the dollar, and the current environment keeps the precious metal at risk for further losses as the Federal Reserve appears to be on course to implement higher interest rates over the remainder of the year.
Looking ahead, attention now turns to the U. However, stickiness in the core rate of inflation may encourage the Federal Open Market Committee FOMC to increase the benchmark interest rate to a fresh threshold of 2. In addition, the Retail Sales report is projected to show another 0. In turn, gold remains vulnerable to further losses as the inverse relationship between the precious metal and the greenback continues to materialize , with the IG Client Sentiment Report still showing retail sentiment near extremes as T he ratio of traders long to short sits at 4.
The slant in retail positioning offers a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, with current conditions warning of a further decline in gold as both price and the Relative Strength Index RSI snap the bullish formations carried over from the previous month.
For more in-depth analysis, check out the Q3 Forecast for Gold. Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for Interested in having a broader discussion on current market themes? Fundamental Forecast for CAD: The past week saw the Canadian Dollar weaken towards 1.
The Bank of Canada provided a relatively balanced statement, leaving the door open for a hike in October. As we look towards next week, the Canadian Dollar may see somewhat of a quieter week from the data front with a lack of tier 1 data to drive price action in the CAD.
To contact Justin, email him at Justin. Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: That seems a little harsh of the market when the 3. Well, all GDP data are open to charges of being too historic to matter in the frenetic, second-to-second world of foreign exchange.
There is some truth here too. Then there are some more specific Australian problems. None of them is new. Inflation remains stickily low, consumer debt remains stickily high. Indeed the markets still do not think that record-low interest rates are going anywhere for at least another year.
With US rates still very likely to rise, the Aussie remains in a very tough place. This week will not change that, but it will bring official employment data out of Australia. There was another one when the Reserve Bank of Australia was perhaps a little less dovish than markets had feared in its post-rate-decision statement.
I also highlighted the 1. You can see from the chart below how […]. The first was on August 28th where I took a relatively bullish view. I even wrote that the pair could reach 1. Just two days later on the 30th, I did a degree turn. Instead of examining the Euro through a bullish lense, I […].
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Sep 10, · Weekly Forex Forecast (September 10 – 14, ) September 9, / Weekly Forex Forecast / By and options and be willing to accept them in order to trade in these markets. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Please do not trade with borrowed money or money you cannot afford to. Weekly forex outlooks and forecasts including currency technical analysis for the US dollar, Euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and New Zealand dollar. (Forex) trading carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Any comments made on Forex Crunch or on other sites that have. Forex Trading Resources. DailyFX offers a plethora of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, Other Weekly Fundamental Forecasts.